Thursday, 28 August 2025

The usual way to compare costs of energy sources is by Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), which averages total costs over the lifetime of a project (construction, fuel, maintenance, financing, etc.) into a per-megawatt-hour (MWh) figure.

The latest big global comparisons (IEA, Lazard, U.S. EIA, IRENA, 2023–2024 data) generally rank sources like this (approximate global averages; actual costs vary by country and financing):


Cheapest → Most expensive (LCOE, $/MWh, 2023–24 ranges)

  1. Utility-scale Solar PV$25–50

    • Prices keep falling; lowest in sunny regions with cheap financing.

  2. Onshore Wind$30–60

    • One of the most cost-competitive sources; stable or falling.

  3. Hydropower (large-scale)$35–80

    • Very cheap once built, but highly site-dependent; huge upfront cost.

  4. Nuclear (existing plants, lifetime extensions)$40–70

    • Extending old plants is cheap; new builds are very expensive.

  5. Geothermal$45–90

    • Stable and dispatchable; depends on suitable geology.

  6. Offshore Wind$70–120

    • Costs are coming down, but still higher due to construction complexity.

  7. New Nuclear (new builds)$120–200+

    • High capital costs, delays, and financing risks make new projects expensive.

  8. Fossil fuels

    • Natural Gas (combined cycle)$45–100 (cheap where gas is abundant, but volatile with fuel prices).

    • Coal$65–150 (often uncompetitive now, especially with carbon pricing).

    • Oil-fired generation$150–250+ (used mainly for backup in islands/remote regions).


Big picture

  • Cheapest globally today: Solar PV and onshore wind.

  • Most expensive: New nuclear, oil, and some coal.

  • Most stable (not fuel-price sensitive): Renewables and nuclear.

  • Most volatile: Gas and coal, since they depend on global commodity markets.


Do you want me to make a ranked chart just for Canada or the UK (since policies, subsidies, and geography shift costs a lot), or keep it global?


ChatGPT said:

Here’s a ranked cost comparison of energy sources in the UK, using the latest reliable government data (expressed in £ per MWh, real 2021/2022 prices) — ranked from least to most expensive:


UK Energy Sources: Ranked by Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

RankEnergy SourceEstimated LCOE (£/MWh)Notes
1⃣Onshore Wind~£38Most cost-effective; strong economies of scale. electricity info+1Wikipedia
2⃣Large-Scale Solar PV~£41Slightly higher than onshore wind but still very competitive. electricity info+1
3⃣Offshore Wind~£44More expensive than onshore but still much cheaper than fossil fuels. electricity info+1Wikipedia
4⃣Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT)~£114When forecast for 2025; still meaningfully more costly than renewables even without carbon capture. electricity info
5⃣New Nuclear (e.g., Hinkley/Sizewell C)~£109–£132*Estimated cost around £109 (DESNZ new nuclear central estimate) to ~£132 strike price; Hinkley LCOE ranges dependent on financing assumptions. electricity infoWorld Nuclear NewsFinancial Times

*DESNZ figure (~£109) refers to new nuclear central estimate; Hinkley-based LCOE including financing at ~£132/MWh. electricity infoWorld Nuclear News


Summary Ranking (Cheapest → Most Expensive)

  1. Onshore Wind (~£38/MWh)

  2. Large-Scale Solar PV (~£41/MWh)

  3. Offshore Wind (~£44/MWh)

  4. CCGT (Gas) (~£114/MWh)

  5. New Nuclear (~£109–£132/MWh)


Additional Context & Insights

  • Solar PV is becoming increasingly competitive: One projection suggests that large-scale solar could drop dramatically to ~£17/MWh by 2035 under optimistic scenarios, potentially undercutting all other sources. PubMed Central

  • Renewables vs Gas: The Imperial College Grantham Institute notes that as of 2023, the LCOE for solar and wind (around £41–48/MWh) is substantially lower than gas (~£124/MWh including carbon price), reinforcing that renewables are already cost-efficient. Imperial College London

  • Local example of high cost: The older Greater Gabbard offshore wind project (built around 2011) had an LCOE of £137/MWh, highlighting how older projects and infrastructure differences can impact costs. Wikipedia


Final Thoughts

  • Renewables — especially onshore wind and solar — are currently the cheapest electricity sources in the UK.

  • Offshore wind remains competitive, though more expensive due to infrastructure and installation complexity.

  • Natural gas is significantly more expensive when considering carbon pricing.

  • New nuclear falls between renewables and gas, and while higher in cost, is valued for its stable, low-carbon baseload generation.

Would you like me to break this down further—for instance:

  • By expected future costs (e.g., projected 2025–2035 changes)?

  • Cost comparisons including system-level factors (energy storage, grid integration)?

  • A cost comparison for small modular reactors (SMRs)?

Let me know—happy to dig deeper!

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